More than half of which we import from abroad. Prices for some products have already increased by 10-15%! This can be seen from the AiF Basket data.

Against this background, tens of thousands of Russians find themselves without work. There is nothing to feed families and pay debts. Even official unemployment data shows its growth. Although officials claim that this is the influence of the season and soon everyone will find work. But there are more and more alarm bells.

Lazy involuntarily

Layoffs began throughout the country. At 23 industrial enterprises in Volgograd, production volumes have decreased, and more than 2.5 thousand people are now working part-time. Meanwhile, Volgograd employers have already announced that they plan to lay off almost 4 thousand people in the spring. Workers of the Uralasbest enterprise in the Sverdlovsk region. (the world's largest producer of chrysolite) received a notice that from May 1 the plant will switch to a three-day week. That is, earnings will fall by almost half. But a quarter of all working residents of Asbest work there! The industrial zone of the Southern Urals is all down. Zlatoust, Chelyabinsk, Miass - thousands of workers are freed up there. Urgent meetings are being held in the administration of the Smolensk region: 9 enterprises are idle, 16 are working part-time, several thousand employees of factories who prepared components for ZIL are in limbo. No spare parts needed. And the specialists who produced them. Production is going to be “reorganized”. There are fears that in reality this will only mean layoffs.

The same situation is with manufacturers of components for AvtoVAZ cars. Starting in March, two factories in Syzran will work less than a full week. And it’s not easy at AVTOVAZ itself:

Infographics: AiF / Yana Laikova

No matter how fired

The regional leadership proposes to employ people in public works - sweeping streets, painting fences. In this case, they can be removed from the unemployment statistics. Those who are less than 2 years away from retirement will be sent to early retirement. But what about the calls to work longer after retirement? The standard of living of people “attached” in such ways drops sharply. Unemployment benefits are a maximum of 4.9 thousand rubles, and only a few will receive this maximum. Pension - 10 thousand rubles.

“The problems of working people are noticed when strikes begin,” said AiF Vladimir Lapshin, co-chairman of the Interregional workers' trade union "Zashchita". - As long as people endure, they remain bargaining chips. When things get worse at enterprises, they cut costs by laying off workers. Officials protect businesses, not workers. Citizens find themselves without guaranteed income, face to face with uncontrollably rising prices.” This is what our “popular inflation” is talking about.

People's basket "AiF"

Internet survey

Have any of your loved ones, colleagues or acquaintances been laid off at work recently?

• No - 40% (81 votes)
• Yes - 37% (75 votes)
• No, but there are rumors about it all the time, and people are very nervous - 23% (45 votes)

2 hours

TOPIC No. 13 UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION AS MANIFESTATIONS OF ECONOMYCZECH INSTABILITY

Lesson 1

1.Tore resources: structure and measurement.

2. Structure and forms of unemployment.

3. Causes and consequences of unemployment.

4. State regulation of the labor market

Lesson 2

5. Inflation: essence, types and causes

6. Socio-economic consequences of inflation.

7. Anti-inflationary policy

1. TORE RESOURCES: STRUCTURE AND DIMENSION

To determine the number of unemployed in each country, it is necessary to divide the entire population into groups according to the degree of their labor activity. To do this, we will use the labor force classification introduced into Kazakhstan statistics (it takes into account the recommendations of the International Labor Organization).

1). Economically active population (labor force)- part of the population at the age established for measuring the economic activity of the population, providing labor supply for the production of goods and services. The economically active population includes those employed in all types of economic activity and the unemployed.

Working population in Kazakhstan these are people over 16 years old and men aged 63 years, women – 58 years old.

Economic activity level- the share of the population aged 15 years and older, measured as a percentage.

2). Economically inactive (passive) population– persons of the age established for measuring economic activity of the population who are not employed or unemployed during the period under review.

Based on this structure, the level of economic activity of the population is determined - the share of the number of economically active people in the total population. This level is calculated using the formula

where Ua is the level of economically active population;

N - population size;

Ea is the number of economically active population.

In its turn, economically active population is divided into two groups:

1). Employed (working) population – all persons of the appropriate age who, by reason of their condition during a specified short period of one week, may be classified in one of the following categories:

A) “hired (paid) employee”;

B) “self-employed worker.”

2). Unemployed population - persons at the age established for measuring the economic activity of the population, who during the period under review simultaneously met three main criteria:

A) were unemployed (did not have a gainful occupation);

B) were actively searching for it;

B) were ready to start work within a certain period of time.

Pupils, students, pensioners and disabled people are counted as unemployed if they were looking for work and were ready to start work.

The unemployed registered with the state employment service include persons who do not have a job, are looking for work and have received official unemployed status in the prescribed manner.

Based on employment and unemployment data, the unemployment rate is determined. The unemployment rate (Ub) is the share of the number of unemployed in the economically active population (Ea). This level is determined by the formula

Unemployment rate is the share of the number of unemployed in the economically active population, measured as a percentage.

2. Structure and forms of unemployment

Unemployment is a condition when the working population is looking for, but cannot find, work. The entire population of the country can be divided into able-bodied and disabled.

It is important to emphasize that the unemployed usually include not only those fired for various reasons, but also persons who voluntarily left their previous job and are trying to find a new one. Unemployment structure for its reasons, it includes four main categories of the workforce: those who lost their jobs as a result of layoffs; those who voluntarily left their jobs; those who entered the labor market after a break; those entering the labor market for the first time. The ratio of these categories depends, first of all, on the phase of the economic cycle.

There are different concepts of the phenomenon of unemployment, but in general in economic science the dominant point of view is that unemployment basically reflects the economic feasibility of using resources, just as, say, the degree of utilization of production capacity reflects the feasibility and efficiency of using fixed capital. This is evidenced, in particular, by the so-called natural rate of unemployment, defined as the unemployment rate at full employment. However, full employment does not mean 100% employment of the labor force and the absence of unemployment. It assumes the presence of structural and frictional unemployment, but the absence of cyclical unemployment. Under structural unemployment refers to unemployment caused by a discrepancy between the structures of demand and supply of the workforce in terms of qualifications, demographics, geographic and other criteria. Frictional unemployment- is unemployment associated mainly with the voluntary transition of workers from one job to another and with seasonal fluctuations in the demand for labor. Thus, seasonal unemployment is part of frictional unemployment. Cyclical unemployment reflects the state of the economic situation in the country and the excess of labor supply over demand for it during the economic downturn.

Economists also highlight some other forms of unemployment, associated with various classification criteria: its duration, forced nature, concentration in certain professional groups, industries, regions or age categories. Among them, in particular, partial unemployment when workers are forced to work part-time due to lack of work. Under stagnant unemployment refers to its concentration among certain categories of the labor force over a long period of time. Technological unemployment is associated with the displacement of living labor from production under the influence of scientific and technological progress.

In the USA in the 60s. The natural level of unemployment was considered to be 4.3%, in the 70s - already 6.6%, in the 80s-90s. - about 7%. The excess of unemployment above its natural level is determined mainly by the cyclical factor, i.e. the state of the economic situation in the country. According to the calculations of American economists, 60% of the increase in the number of unemployed in the United States in the 60-90s. accounts for structural unemployment, and 40% - for cyclical unemployment. The dynamics of unemployment are also influenced by the economic and social policies of the state, demographic factors, changes in the structure of the economy, the state of foreign trade and the export of capital, the scale of military expenditures, and the positions and activity of trade unions.

Of course, in practice it is difficult to separate the impact of structural factors from cyclical ones, and therefore the definitions used by science (frictional, structural, cyclical and other types of unemployment) are quite arbitrary. However, they can be useful, for example, in identifying long-term and short-term factors affecting the labor market.

The macroeconomic costs of unemployment are indicated, in particular, by Okun's law, reflecting the relationship between the unemployment rate and the lag of GDP. This lag represents the amount by which actual GDP is less than its potential value. In turn, potential GDP is determined based on the assumption that there is a natural rate of unemployment at a given rate of economic growth. According to Okun's law, an excess of the current unemployment rate by 1% above its expected natural level (at full employment) increases the backlog of GDP by 2.5%. It's an attitude 1:2,5, those. the level of unemployment to the lag in GDP, allows you to calculate the absolute losses of production associated with any level of unemployment in the country.

It is necessary to keep in mind the existence of significant “shadow” employment, which is not taken into account by official statistics. This includes, in particular, the so-called shuttles carrying out export-import operations (estimated at several hundred thousand people); people engaged in domestic unorganized small retail trade; employees of unregistered security structures; persons involved in illegal business (prostitution, pornography, drugs, etc.) and criminal structures. In addition, there are many types of activities (consulting services, tutoring, home and car repairs, construction of summer houses and garden houses, etc.), which are often carried out without any registration and the scale of which is very large. All this taken together could provide regular and casual employment for many hundreds of thousands of people and thus correct existing unemployment estimates.

Which will be unemployed, even when real wage rate will be in equilibrium.  

Okun's law implies that the unemployment rate is the result of a fast or slow cumulative economic growth. An increase in the unemployment rate according to Okun's Law may be the result of several years of slow growth or decline. To then reduce it to its natural level, it may be necessary long period intensive growth. High unemployment cannot be quickly eliminated, since to create and fill a sufficient number of new work places it takes time.  

There was an objective need for mathematical calculations that would help government agencies more or less accurately determine quantitative characteristics of conditions, at which possible achievement natural norm(level of) unemployment and, accordingly, full market employment at labor market. So, is the share of unemployed that corresponds to the appropriate level full employment in economics.  

Strictly speaking, these statements are completely true only in the case when the value of the total work force not growing. If it grows, the number of unemployed may increase to the same extent without leading to an increase in the unemployment rate. Let's demonstrate this with the following example. Initially, the total work force consists of 100 million people, and the unemployment rate is 8%, so 8 million people are unemployed. Then work force increases to 110 million. With an unemployment rate of 8%, there are now 8.8 million unemployed. Thus, their number increased while the share of unemployed remained the same.  

One interesting way to analyze the impact of good job prospects on unemployment rates is to look at the percentage of unemployed people in different cities. Unemployment rates in some fast-growing cities appear to be higher than those in slow-growing cities. This happens because people go to fast-growing cities to look for work for the first time and, while they are looking for it, are considered unemployed. For this reason, the proportion of unemployed may be higher in cities experiencing an influx of job seekers compared to cities that are stagnating.  

O According to Okun's law, an annual increase in real GNP of approximately 2.7% keeps the share of unemployed at a constant level. Every additional 2 percentage points growth in real GNP reduce the share of unemployed by 1 percentage point. Likewise, each additional reduction growth rate GNP by 2 percentage points causes the unemployment rate to increase by 1 percentage point.  

The second part of Okun's law describes the change in the share of unemployed depending on additional variation growth rate GNP. Faster growth reduces unemployment, while relative decline growth rate increases the share of unemployed. If growth rate increase, for example, from 3 to 5%, the share of unemployed falls by about 1 percentage point. In turn, reducing the growth rate from 4 to 2% increases the share of unemployed by about 1 percentage point.  

If the actual share of unemployed is equal to the appropriate rate, then people looking for work, as a rule, find it within an acceptable period of time, and entrepreneurs looking for workers, in turn, in most cases manage to do this quite quickly. A rise in the unemployment rate usually indicates increasing suffering among the unemployed, while a fall in the rate often leads to inflation wages, since entrepreneurs find themselves in a situation where they are unable to hire the required number of workers at the current level wages. If policymakers are concerned about unemployment and inflation, the goal of sound policy should be to keep the actual unemployment rate close to its natural rate  

Figure 32-5 shows the results of these adjustments and illustrates three important points regarding natural norm. The shaded bar shows the range of scores natural rate of unemployment made for different periods, since different quite reasonable ways of estimating natural norm always give slightly different results. That's why we show the range of estimates. The difference between the highest and lowest scores for any period is approximately 1 percentage point. Thus, no one knows exactly what natural rate of unemployment at a certain period. Nevertheless, this concept seems to be very useful. For example, when the unemployment rate reaches 10%, it is clear that a long journey will be required to reduce it to the level natural norm. It is also clear that the unemployment rate of 3% is significantly lower natural norm. It is somewhat more difficult to say whether the economy is in a state of full employment with a 6% unemployment rate.  

Although most of the groups in the table. 32-4 have an unemployment rate more than 2 times that of whites 20 years of age and older, average level unemployment is only about 1.5 times higher. Why is this possible? Shouldn't the average rate be higher, considering that unemployment rate in other groups it is very high and reaches 30% of working age in some of them. The share of unemployed in the economy is close to the unemployment rate among whites 20 years of age and older, since they make up almost 80% of the total number of workers strength. The fact that unemployment in this group is below average offsets the contribution of very high unemployment rates among members of some other groups.  

The percentage of unemployed people in the age group 20 and older during the 1980 recession was 6.1%, with an average of 7.1%. Thus, if youth unemployment could be reduced to the level of older workers, the average unemployment rate in the economy would fall by 1 percentage point.  

If we look not at the unemployment rate, but at the employment rate, we will get a more favorable impression of market conditions labor in the period after the 60s. Rice. 32-O1 shows the shares of unemployed and employed since 1967. The unemployment scale is turned upside down to show the combined change in norms employment and unemployment during economic cycle. When during a recession unemployment rate grows, employment falls, and vice versa.  

The unemployment rate changes when flow intensity flow into the unemployment pool is different from the outflow. If more people join the ranks of the unemployed than leave them, the unemployment rate rises. When more people leave the ranks of the unemployed, this figure decreases2. The share of unemployed grows when the percentage of people who have lost and quit their jobs or the percentage of those who were not previously part of the workforce work force, but now decided to look for work, increases. The unemployment rate falls when previously unemployed people become employed or when they stop looking and leave the total labor force.  

This curve was proposed in the 1950s in Great Britain by Professor A.V. Philips4. In ch. 31 we saw how in an economy, in the presence of overemployment, pressure on labor market causes wages and prices to rise. The decline in the share of unemployed is accompanied by rising inflation. And vice versa, when product release below the potential level and decline by labor market there will be a tendency towards deflation. Phillips curve reflects this relationship, showing at the same time inflation rate and the unemployment rate The direction of the curve means that the lower unemployment rate, the higher inflation rate. Thus, in this curve in  

Along with the political and economic crisis, our country is gradually being overwhelmed by a wave of unemployment. Capitalists are slowly starting to cut staff, and at non-competitive enterprises, layoffs have generally become the norm.

Let's try to figure out where and why this disaster came to us.

Unemployment is one of the inevitable phenomena of capitalism. The market is merciless towards non-competitive elements of society. Entire enterprises are collapsing, as well as entire lives, families and the myth about the steadfastness of the modern social system in Russia. It would seem that this is a problem for the workers themselves: they say, if you were fired or laid off, go and find another job. Yes, there may be quitters among the population, but let's look at the problem from the inside.

Who are these people made of?

1. Retrenched workers.

Another economic crisis is brewing in the country, sanctions, a fall in the ruble exchange rate and general panic are forcing employers to reduce their staff so as not to lose their profits. Profit for capitalists always comes first. As a rule, less qualified employees are fired (not necessarily those who are illiterate and do not fulfill their duties). This list includes mainly young professionals, newcomers to work, etc.

1. Young professionals

Not every university and, especially, technical school in the city is engaged in the distribution of students. Upon completion of training, a student is forced to look for a job on his own, but having little experience, he finds himself in an endless cycle of refusals like “need experience,” and to gain experience you need a job—a vicious circle. As is now customary, a “matchmaking” device can help in this matter. But does everyone have it? Another option: get a job while studying and prepare the ground for your future in advance before graduation. This is more suitable for those who are not going to work in their specialty, therefore, we get another “service” with a diploma of an engineer, economist, lawyer, etc. And instead of this “under-student” there could be another who could study and become a professional. Those who want will always find a way, but, on the other hand, this can hinder the student both academically and mentally. No wonder the number of student suicides is growing every year.

As a result, poor students have to rush from one place to another, trying to find a job with decent pay.

1. Pensioners

Probably one of the most vulnerable segments of the population. Pensions have long become a shackle for pensioners, constituting the minimum that is allocated for food, determined by the authorities. Along with spending on housing and communal services and medicines, pensioners, at best, will, as they say, “break even.” Benefits for pensioners, including discounted travel on public transport, have long irritated the authorities with the need for budget spending, but dozens of protest rallies in defense of unlimited discounted travel on public transport forced the authorities to temporarily remove their predatory attempts on the freedom of movement of pensioners.

1. Former petty bourgeois

Capitalism in Russia is squeezing the last juice out of its citizens; it has reached its edge, its limit. He moved into the stage of imperialism. Dreams of a reliable, efficient and eternal market are gradually dissipating. Young entrepreneurs dreaming of a luxurious bourgeois life are finding it increasingly difficult to get used to this system, and it is increasingly difficult to resist big business. These people subsequently become the same proletarians, or join the army of the unemployed.

Returning to our topic, let's discuss how to be this unemployed. No more than six months ago, statistics on the average salary of Novosibirsk residents were posted on the NHS website. It was indicated in the range of 27-29 thousand rubles, these figures are reminiscent of a joke, where one has 10, and another has 0, on average, everyone has 5. In fact, the average salary is much less. Number of vacancies with a salary of up to 20 tr. 100 times more than vacancies with a salary of more than 50 thousand rubles.

In reality, the figure should not be more than 20 thousand rubles, which is more consistent with the real income of citizens. Although what are these pitiful 20, or even 30 thousand in our time? Having no housing, people rent apartments; public transport in the city is clearly not developed for the realities of the 21st century. Hence the large number of poor people. People don't want to go to work for starvation wages. And they can be understood.

The political and economic situation in the country has really shown what the Russian economy is capable of in a crisis. Russian manufacturers, against the backdrop of rising prices for foreign equipment, are unable to cope with the consumer demands of the population.

We produce little, and this is against the backdrop of constant pretentious speeches by the president and the party in power about the need to increase budget places for technical specialties.

What or who are these technical specialties for? To replenish the army of unemployed? To replenish the number of the same couriers, waiters and other service personnel with technician diplomas?

This should have been thought about earlier, when Soviet industry was still alive. Does Russia now have a real chance to restore industry?

There's another question to answer first. Do the authorities need to develop industry?

No, it is not in their interests to develop and increase the number of industrial workers. As a result, we get a constant increase in unemployment. People deprived of work are forced to constantly jump from one small office to another, which during a crisis are equally reliable in terms of permanence and stability.

What is the government doing? It works according to the old and well-known scheme: “wait out the storm until it subsides.”

What do we communists say?

The Russian bourgeoisie mainly lives from the sale of natural resources, from finance, trade and, apparently, is not going to break this tradition.

The power in the country is bourgeois, like the political majority in the Duma, which represents big business. It is naive to think that in times of crisis capitalists will help the ordinary population. Each party primarily works for the benefit and salvation of its class. For example, the “Rotenberg law”. Workers are at the very bottom of this list, right after law enforcement agencies, the bourgeois intelligentsia and the clergy. This has always been and will be so as long as capitalism exists. Other bourgeois parties are discussing large capital, which for some reason was not included in the first list, and the smaller bourgeoisie.

The communists offer another way. The path to building a socialist society. Only communists represent the interests of the workers, since only they are the progressive force capable of resisting oppression. Capitalism can no longer keep up with the growth of the productive forces. Life requires further development and movement forward, and this requires other production relations, revolutionary transformations of society associated with the transition to a system that is certainly more advanced than capitalism - socialism and communism.

Power in the hands of workers is more effective in terms of employment. The transition from capitalism to socialism goes in parallel with the growth of productive social forces, and, therefore, there is an interest in full employment of the population, and then the complete elimination of unemployment with the further development of the national economy for the benefit of the homeland and its population.

Metzler Oleg